The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that jet fuel shortages are expected to intensify across Asia and Europe in the coming months, with the most acute supply constraints projected between June and September 2026, coinciding with peak summer travel demand, Nomad Lawyer reported.
IATA chief Willie Walsh has publicly called on regulators across affected regions to grant temporary relief measures to airlines navigating the elevated operating environment. Walsh advocated for streamlined approval processes for alternative fuel sources and temporary exemptions from certain environmental mandates to maximise available supply, arguing that regulatory flexibility would help carriers maintain schedules and protect consumer interests during the shortage period. Regulatory bodies across Asia and Europe are reportedly considering these requests.
According to the report, several factors have converged to create the current pressure on aviation fuel supply. Geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions has constrained refinery capacity and export volumes, while transportation infrastructure damage and sanctions-related complications have disrupted established supply routes. Refinery maintenance schedules, combined with unexpected outages at critical facilities, have further reduced global jet fuel production at a time of seasonally rising demand. The International Energy Agency has documented the simultaneous nature of these pressures, the report said.
Despite the warnings, summer travel bookings have remained resilient, rising an estimated 3 to 5 per cent above typical seasonal levels. Airlines facing higher fuel acquisition costs have begun implementing fuel surcharges and revising pricing strategies. Industry analysts cited in the report projected ticket price increases of 8 to 15 per cent on major Asia-Europe routes compared to 2025 levels, with fuel costs per gallon expected to rise to between $2.65 and $2.80, up from a 2025 baseline of $2.15 — an increase of 23 to 30 per cent. The proportion of airlines implementing fuel surcharges is projected to rise sharply from 15 per cent to around 65 per cent.
Jet fuel availability on Asia-Europe routes is projected to fall to between 78 and 85 per cent of 2025 levels during the peak shortage period, according to data cited in the report. Recovery is not expected until the fourth quarter of 2026, when additional refining capacity is anticipated to come online and geopolitical conditions may stabilise. Airlines have been actively negotiating long-term fuel supply contracts and diversifying sourcing strategies, including increased use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) where available and economically feasible. SAF currently accounts for less than 1 per cent of total jet fuel supply but is expected to grow as production capacity expands.
