Crops grown on severely degraded land or between food harvests are unlikely to provide a large-scale solution to the European Union’s growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to a new study by Transport & Environment (T&E) conducted with Cerulogy, Sustainability Online reported.
The study estimates that around 7 million hectares across Europe could be suitable for intermediate crops grown between food harvests, while another 3 million hectares could potentially be used for crops on severely degraded land.
At maximum production, these areas could generate around 1 million tonnes of bio-SAF by 2030, equivalent to as much as 40% of the EU’s projected bio-SAF demand at that time.
However, the potential contribution is expected to decline sharply over the longer term. By 2050, such crops could supply only around 4% of the EU’s bio-SAF requirement, the study found.
T&E said the findings challenge the view that growing crops between food production cycles or on poor-quality land could provide a scalable source of aviation biofuel.
Cian Delaney, biofuels policy manager at T&E, said the approach was not a “miracle solution” for the aviation sector and warned that expanding these crops without adequate safeguards could recreate competition between food and fuel.
The study also cautioned that large-scale expansion could affect existing food production or increase Europe’s reliance on imported feedstocks whose sustainability and origin may be difficult to verify.
The findings come as the EU seeks to rapidly expand SAF use under its ReFuelEU Aviation programme. The bloc requires SAF to account for 2% of aviation fuel from 2025, rising to 6% in 2030 and 70% by 2050.
T&E said the European Commission is expected to issue guidance on how intermediate and degraded-land crops can qualify towards renewable-energy targets.
The organisation called for strict safeguards to ensure that qualifying crops do not result in additional agricultural expansion or undermine food production.
The study suggests that while degraded and intermediate-crop feedstocks could make a meaningful contribution during the initial phase of SAF deployment, their long-term availability is unlikely to match the scale of Europe’s projected aviation fuel demand.
