Retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries in India could contain recoverable minerals worth around Rs 1.01 lakh crore by FY2040-41, creating a significant opportunity for the country’s battery recycling industry, according to a working paper by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), Hindustan Times reported.
The paper, ‘Battery circularity in India – A billion-dollar long-term opportunity: The case of EV batteries’, estimates that around 573 kilotonnes (kt) of minerals could be recovered from retired EV batteries between FY2026-27 and FY2040-41.
The study, by CSEP fellow Shyamasis Das and former research associate Kartik Nair, examines the expected growth in EV sales, battery chemistry, recoverable minerals, recycling capacity and investment requirements.
“India should not wait for millions of retired EV batteries to accumulate before deciding to invest in building recycling capacity,” Das said. He said India has an opportunity to build circularity into the EV ecosystem while the transition is still at an early stage.
EV sales expected to rise sharply
India added nearly 8 million EVs between FY2016-17 and FY2025-26, with electric two- and three-wheelers accounting for most of the additions. EVs represented 8.25% of total vehicle sales in FY2025-26.
The study projects annual EV sales to increase to 9.1 million in FY2030-31 and nearly 49.9 million by FY2037-38. Electric two-wheelers are expected to drive much of this growth, with annual sales projected to rise from around 7.1 million to 40.1 million during the period.
Electric buses and heavy trucks are expected to remain smaller segments, although their larger battery packs could contribute significantly to future recycling volumes.
India currently depends entirely on imports for lithium, nickel and cobalt, which are classified as critical and strategic minerals by the Ministry of Mines.
Lithium to account for largest share of mineral value
The CSEP paper estimates recoverable minerals at around 23 kt between FY2026-27 and FY2030-31, 118 kt during the following five years and 432 kt during the final five-year period through FY2040-41.
Copper is expected to account for the largest volume, while lithium is projected to represent the largest share of the overall mineral value.
The total value of recoverable minerals is estimated at Rs 1,01,491 crore, equivalent to $11.94 billion at an exchange rate of Rs 85 per dollar.
Recycling could meet around 10% of India’s lithium requirement for EV battery manufacturing during FY2026-27 to FY2030-31 and around 12% during the subsequent five-year period, according to the study.
Electric two-wheelers could account for about 57% of the minerals available for recycling, including around 53% of recoverable lithium, 60% of nickel and 63% of cobalt. Electric passenger cars could contribute 24% of the minerals, while three-wheelers, excluding e-rickshaws, could account for 15%.
Medium- and heavy-duty EVs are estimated to contribute around 1.2%, partly because their batteries generally have longer lifespans and may have second-life applications.
Rs 55,057 crore investment required
The projected recycling volumes would require around 3,315 kt of recycling capacity by FY2040-41, the paper estimates.
Capacity requirements are projected at 122 kt in the first five-year period, 673 kt in the second and 2,520 kt in the final period.
The corresponding investment requirement is estimated at Rs 55,057 crore. Of this, Rs 2,028 crore would be required during the first five years, Rs 11,169 crore during the next five and Rs 41,826 crore during the final period.
India currently has around 80 kt of announced battery processing capacity, while the Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme targets about 270 kt by FY2030-31.
The authors said these capacities may appear adequate initially but warned that substantially greater capacity could be required in later years.
Call for early investment in recycling
The study argues that recycling infrastructure needs to be planned well before large volumes of batteries reach end of life. Establishing recycling facilities can take several years, while processing and recovery lines can require months to stabilise.
The paper also highlights the export of black mass, an intermediate material produced during battery recycling. Some Indian recyclers currently export black mass, primarily to China, rather than recovering the contained minerals domestically.
The authors argue that retaining more of this processing within India could help build domestic critical-mineral recovery capacity.
EU and China offer policy lessons
The paper compares India’s emerging recycling framework with policies in the European Union and China.
The EU has set recovery targets of 90% for cobalt, copper, lead and nickel by 2027, rising to 95% by 2031. Lithium recovery targets are 50% by 2027 and 80% by 2031.
China requires recovery rates of at least 90% for lithium and 98% for nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth metals.
The authors said India has an initial regulatory framework through the Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022, and pointed to the proposed Battery Aadhaar framework as another potential component of the ecosystem.
Ten interventions proposed
The paper proposes 10 priority measures to strengthen India’s battery recycling ecosystem, including creating stronger domestic demand for recycled minerals and including recycled minerals in the national critical mineral stockpile.
It also recommends technical standards, expanded testing infrastructure and improved battery take-back systems. The authors said collection of spent EV batteries remains fragmented.
Other recommendations include regulating black mass flows, harmonising safety requirements for battery collection, storage and transportation, and developing long-term partnerships between vehicle manufacturers, battery producers and recyclers.
The authors also recommend revisiting the Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022, arguing that the existing collection targets—70% for 2024-25, 80% for 2025-26 and 90% from 2026-27—are based on conservative battery-life assumptions and could encourage premature retirement of batteries.
The paper also notes that the rules do not specify mineral-specific recovery targets.
Recycling could support lower EV costs
A larger battery recycling ecosystem could also improve supply security and price predictability for EV manufacturers, potentially reducing battery costs over time.
The study notes that the higher upfront cost of EVs compared with conventional vehicles remains a barrier in India’s price-sensitive market. A developed recycling ecosystem could also create opportunities for recyclers, refurbishers and repurposers while supporting the formalisation of battery and solid-waste collection.
The study estimates that if electric two- and three-wheelers reach a 100% electric share by FY2037-38, recoverable minerals could increase by 445 kt, adding around Rs 73,600 crore in economic value.
The authors said early planning and investment would be important to build India’s battery circularity ecosystem before large volumes of EV batteries reach end of life.
