Mumbai: India’s two-wheeler market is heading towards a major shift, with scooters expected to surpass motorcycles in volumes over the next decade, driven largely by rapid electrification and changing consumer preferences, according to a report by Equirus Securities.
The report projects scooter sales to grow at around 9 per cent annually between FY25 and FY30, outpacing motorcycles, which are expected to expand at about 4 per cent during the same period. This trend could eventually see scooters overtake motorcycles in overall volumes after FY37, reshaping the structure of the market, Business standard reported.
The shift is being supported by rising urbanisation, increasing participation of women in the workforce, and a growing demand for convenient mobility options. However, electrification is seen as the most important driver, with scooters leading the transition.
Electric two-wheelers are expected to grow rapidly, with volumes projected to rise at a compound annual rate of about 34 per cent between FY25 and FY30. Their market share is likely to increase from low single digits at present to around 19 per cent by FY30 and exceed 50 per cent by FY40.
Within this segment, electric scooters are set to dominate. Their share is expected to reach nearly 38 per cent by FY30 and rise to over 80 per cent by FY40, supported by suitability for city use, faster product development, and lower running costs. In comparison, electric motorcycles are likely to see slower adoption, with penetration estimated at about 5 per cent by FY30 due to higher costs and range concerns.
Industry leaders have also pointed to this trend. Sudarshan Venu, Chairman and Managing Director of TVS Motor Company, had earlier said that scooters have been growing faster than other segments and are expected to continue gaining share.
In the near term, growth in the sector is expected to be supported by replacement demand. Sales remain about 7 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, especially in entry-level motorcycles, leading to a build-up of delayed purchases.
As demand picks up, a part of it is likely to shift towards electric vehicles, particularly scooters, due to improving affordability and lower ownership costs. The introduction of more competitively priced electric models is also expected to attract buyers, especially in the key price range of ₹85,000 to ₹1.1 lakh.
Overall, the report estimates the domestic two-wheeler industry will grow at around 6 per cent annually between FY25 and FY30, before slowing in the longer term as the market matures.
While motorcycles are expected to remain dominant in rural and entry-level segments for now, the report indicates that scooters—especially electric ones—will play a central role in shaping the future of India’s two-wheeler market.
