The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects production of renewable diesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), to increase in 2027, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Jan. 13. Biodiesel production, however, is projected to remain unchanged over the same period, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The agency has kept its estimate that renewable diesel production will average 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. Output is now projected to rise to 290,000 barrels per day in 2027. Renewable diesel production stood at an average of 190,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average minus 20,000 barrels per day, revised from the minus 30,000 barrels per day projected in the December outlook. The EIA expects net imports to remain at minus 20,000 barrels per day in 2027. Net imports of biodiesel averaged minus 30,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA has lowered its forecast for renewable diesel consumption in 2026 to 220,000 barrels per day, compared to 230,000 barrels per day projected earlier. Consumption is expected to increase to 260,000 barrels per day in 2027. Renewable diesel consumption averaged 160,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Biodiesel production is expected to average 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, with output projected to remain at the same level in 2027. Biodiesel production averaged 80,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Net imports of biodiesel are forecast to remain at zero in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the December outlook and the levels reported for 2025.
Biodiesel consumption is projected to average 90,000 barrels per day in 2026 and rise to 100,000 barrels per day in 2027. Consumption stood at 70,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA also maintained its forecast for the production of other biofuels, which include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel such as SAF, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging fuels. Production of these fuels is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, the same level reported for 2025, before rising to 50,000 barrels per day in 2027.
Net imports of other biofuels are expected to remain at zero in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from earlier projections and 2025 levels.
Consumption of other biofuels is forecast to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, in line with previous estimates and 2025 consumption. Consumption is expected to increase to 50,000 barrels per day in 2027.
