The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its projections for biodiesel and renewable diesel output in 2025 while revising upward its forecast for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The agency now expects renewable diesel production to average 200,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s projection of 210,000 barrels per day. Production is still forecast to rise to 260,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
On the consumption side, the EIA kept its outlook unchanged, with renewable diesel demand expected to average 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 220,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with 240,000 barrels per day in 2024. Net imports are projected at -30,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026, compared to -20,000 barrels in the previous outlook.
Biodiesel production estimates were also revised down. The EIA now expects output to average 80,000 barrels per day in 2025, compared to 90,000 barrels in last month’s forecast. For 2026, production is pegged at 90,000 barrels per day, down from 100,000 barrels projected earlier. Biodiesel averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2024. Consumption is forecast at 80,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 90,000 barrels per day in 2026, both reduced from the earlier forecast by 10,000 barrels. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to remain at zero for both years, after averaging 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
In contrast, the EIA raised its forecast for “other biofuels,” which include SAF, renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable gasoline, and other emerging fuels. Production is now expected to average 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from last month’s estimate of 40,000 barrels. This compares with 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 40,000 barrels projected for 2025. Consumption is also forecast to reach 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to 40,000 barrels in 2025 and 20,000 barrels in 2024.
The revisions signal a more cautious outlook for biodiesel and renewable diesel while highlighting stronger growth prospects for next-generation fuels like SAF.
