The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for corn use in ethanol production in the 2026-27 marketing year while lowering its projection for the average price received by farmers, according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on October 9, as reported by Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The USDA now expects 5.65 billion bushels of corn to be used for ethanol production in 2026-27, up from 5.6 billion bushels projected in September. Its estimate for ethanol-related corn consumption in 2025-26 has been marginally reduced to 5.547 billion bushels from 5.55 billion bushels. Corn use for ethanol stood at 5.437 billion bushels in 2024-25.
The latest outlook points to higher US corn production, domestic consumption, exports and ending stocks in 2026-27. Beginning stocks have been revised upwards by 173 million bushels, reflecting data from the USDA’s September 30 Grain Stocks report.
The department has raised its corn production forecast by 234 million bushels to 16 billion bushels. The revision follows an increase of 2.7 bushels per acre in the projected yield, taking it to 181.2 bushels per acre. The forecast for harvested area for grain remains unchanged at 88.5 million acres.
Total corn use is now projected at 16.3 billion bushels, up 125 million bushels from the previous estimate, with forecasts for all major consumption categories revised upwards.
The USDA has also increased its US corn export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, supported by the larger supply. However, the projected growth in supplies is expected to exceed the increase in domestic use and exports, lifting ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion.
In line with the more abundant supply outlook, the USDA has cut its forecast for the season-average price received by US corn producers by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
Outside the United States, corn production is expected to decline, mainly in the European Union, the Philippines and Mexico. The EU forecast has been lowered in response to harvest results and revised government estimates. France’s corn production is projected to fall 38% from the previous year.
The USDA has raised its corn import forecasts for the Philippines and Egypt while reducing its projection for Vietnam.
Global corn ending stocks are forecast at 280.4 million tonnes, an increase of 8.3 million tonnes, largely reflecting the upward revision to US inventories.
The latest estimates indicate that the United States is heading towards a larger corn supply in 2026-27, with ethanol production and other uses expected to absorb more grain. However, the increase in supplies is also projected to result in higher ending stocks and lower prices for farmers.
