The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecast for renewable diesel production in 2026 while keeping its outlook for biodiesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), unchanged in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on October 8, Biodiesel Magazine reported.
The agency now expects US renewable diesel production to average 230,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with 240,000 barrels per day projected in its September outlook. However, its forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 290,000 barrels per day. Production averaged 190,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA also revised its outlook for renewable diesel trade. Net imports are projected at minus 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast. For 2027, the agency expects net imports of minus 10,000 barrels per day, compared with its earlier projection of zero. Net imports averaged minus 30,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Renewable diesel consumption is forecast to average 200,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the September estimate. The projection for 2027, however, has been reduced to 280,000 barrels per day from 290,000 barrels per day. Consumption averaged 160,000 barrels per day last year.
Biodiesel outlook unchanged
The EIA retained its production forecasts for biodiesel at 100,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 110,000 barrels per day in 2027. US biodiesel production averaged 80,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Net biodiesel imports are expected to remain at zero in 2026 before rising to 10,000 barrels per day in 2027. Both projections are unchanged from the previous outlook. Net imports also stood at zero in 2025.
Biodiesel consumption is projected to average 100,000 barrels per day this year and 110,000 barrels per day next year, matching the September forecasts. Consumption averaged 70,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Other biofuel projections remain steady
The agency also maintained its estimates for a category covering other biofuels, including renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel and SAF, alternative jet fuel, biojet, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and emerging biofuels at different stages of development and commercialisation.
Production in this category is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2027. Both forecasts remain unchanged from September. Production averaged 40,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Net imports of other biofuels are projected to remain at zero in both 2026 and 2027, matching the previous forecasts and the 2025 level.
Consumption is also expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year, with no changes to the September outlook. Consumption stood at 40,000 barrels per day in 2025.
