India’s road-fuel demand is expected to continue growing until 2034 despite rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, as an expanding vehicle fleet and increased fuel consumption by commercial transport sustain oil demand, Bloomberg reported.
According to BloombergNEF’s India Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, fuel demand from road transport is projected to peak at more than 2.5 million barrels per day in 2034 before gradually declining.
The growing adoption of electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers and passenger cars is expected to eventually outweigh rising fuel consumption by commercial vehicles, pushing overall road-fuel demand lower.
The projection comes amid a slowdown in the growth of global carbon emissions, although emissions have yet to peak, according to this year’s Global Carbon Budget. China, which accounts for around one-third of global annual emissions, is expected to record a decline in emissions this year.
India’s continued growth in road-fuel demand could help sustain global oil consumption even as emissions trends in China change.
EV sales in India exceeded 2.4 million units last year. However, BNEF projections indicate that, apart from three-wheelers, no vehicle segment is on track to meet the country’s 2030 electrification targets.
The transition to electric mobility will also require a significant expansion of charging infrastructure. BNEF estimates that around $29 billion in investment will be needed by 2040 to develop the required charging network.
