Europe risks sustainable aviation fuel supply gap by 2030, SAS warns

Scandinavian airline SAS has cautioned that Europe is heading towards a structural shortfall in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), warning that the continent’s regulatory framework is mandating demand without securing the supply needed to meet it, TravelWires reported.

The warning comes from a report published by SAS, titled “The Need for e-SAF in Scandinavia,” which examines the growing mismatch between the obligations set out under the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation and the near-total absence of production infrastructure for electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) on the continent. As the regulation begins to take effect from 2030, no European production facility has yet reached a Final Investment Decision.

According to the report, Scandinavian aviation alone will require 36,000 tonnes of e-SAF by 2030, rising to over 160,000 tonnes by 2035 and 330,000 tonnes by 2040. Satisfying this demand would require at least one dedicated production plant to be operational by 2032, scaling up to five plants by 2040. None are currently in place anywhere in Europe.

SAS said that in a market where mandated demand outstrips available supply, prices for e-SAF are likely to rise toward the cost of regulatory non-compliance — a level several times higher than conventional jet fuel today. The airline warned that this could place severe financial pressure on carriers, with consequences for ticket prices, route networks, and the broader competitiveness of European air connectivity.

Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, Senior Vice President for Communication, Public Affairs and Sustainability at SAS, said that failing to build domestic e-SAF production capacity would effectively exchange one fuel vulnerability for another, this time embedded within a regulatory structure that leaves airlines and passengers exposed.

The airline framed the situation as a narrowing window for action, identifying two paths forward — either Europe moderates its ReFuelEU ambitions and accepts a delayed aviation decarbonisation timeline, or it moves swiftly to accelerate e-SAF production through targeted policy support, investment incentives, and dedicated infrastructure development.