India’s forests could hold nearly twice as much carbon by the end of the century compared to current levels, according to a new modelling study published in Environmental Research: Climate. The findings suggest that climate change may significantly alter forest growth patterns, though researchers caution that the gains come with serious risks.
The study, conducted by scientists from several Indian institutes, projects that vegetation carbon could rise by 35 percent under a low-emissions scenario, 62 percent under a medium-emissions pathway, and up to 97 percent if emissions remain high by 2100. The projections show similar trends across scenarios until around 2030, after which they begin to diverge sharply, with the fastest growth expected after 2050, The Hindu reported.
Researchers attribute the increase mainly to higher rainfall and rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. More rainfall is expected to improve moisture availability for trees, while higher carbon dioxide levels could boost plant growth and water-use efficiency. However, the study notes that forests respond gradually, with the impact of rainfall changes becoming visible only after a delay of two to four years.
The findings differ in key ways from estimates by the Forest Survey of India, which are based on ground data and remote sensing. Official figures show a steady rise in forest carbon stock from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023, with projections of 8.65 billion tonnes by 2030.
The study highlights that the largest increases in vegetation carbon are likely to occur in drier regions, including parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh. Other regions such as the Trans-Himalayas, the Gangetic belt, and the Deccan Plateau are also expected to see gains. In contrast, areas like the Western Ghats and the Himalayas may experience smaller increases due to ecological limits and local climate pressures.
Researchers have warned that higher carbon storage does not mean climate change is beneficial for forests. The models used in the study do not fully account for factors such as deforestation, land-use changes, wildfires, droughts, and pest outbreaks, all of which could reduce forest cover and release stored carbon.
They said future forest planning will need to consider regional differences and focus on reducing risks. While the projections point to potential growth in forest carbon, the study stresses that protecting forests remains critical to preventing further emissions.
India has also set targets under its climate commitments to increase its forest carbon sink, aiming to add 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035.
