The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on July 8, revised upward its projections for fuel ethanol production and blending for 2026, while keeping export estimates unchanged.
According to the updated outlook, the EIA expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.06 million barrels per day in 2025—a figure consistent with its June forecast. For 2026, the production estimate has been slightly increased to 1.06 million barrels per day, up from the previous projection of 1.05 million barrels per day.
Quarterly projections show fuel ethanol production averaging 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025, rising to 1.07 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2026, production is forecast to average 1.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, dip slightly to 1.05 million barrels per day in the second quarter, fall to 1.04 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and climb to 1.08 million barrels per day in the final quarter.
Meanwhile, the EIA has kept its forecast for net fuel ethanol imports unchanged, projecting an average of negative 130,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026, the same as the 2024 estimate.
