Brazil could resume imports of ethanol from the United States through the port of Suape in Pernambuco state in January 2027, as seasonal market conditions are expected to make imported supplies more competitive, according to brokerage and consultancy StoneX, Reuters reported.
A report by StoneX, carried by Maritime Logistics Professional through a Reuters-syndicated feed, said the first quarter of 2027 could follow a pattern similar to the corresponding period in 2026, when imports of anhydrous ethanol entered Brazil through Suape, a major port serving the country’s Northeast region.
US ethanol imports rose sharply during the first three months of 2026, pushing Brazil’s ethanol trade balance into deficit. Imported US ethanol remained cheaper than domestically produced anhydrous ethanol in Northeast Brazil despite an 18% import tariff.
Brazil’s ethanol trade balance turned positive from April, with September recording the largest monthly surplus during the period analysed by StoneX.
However, the country’s ethanol exports declined 17% year-on-year to 1.03 billion litres during the year to date. StoneX attributed the decline to a 34.1% fall in industrial ethanol demand, although fuel ethanol shipments increased 31.7%.
According to the brokerage, the viability of US ethanol imports depends on whether the landed cost of imported supplies falls below the domestic price of anhydrous ethanol in Northeast Brazil. The calculation takes into account freight charges, exchange-rate movements, the 18% import tariff and port-related expenses.
StoneX’s forecast is based on expectations of relatively stable freight rates, higher domestic ethanol prices and lower US ethanol prices. These factors could improve the competitiveness of imported supplies and open an import window during Brazil’s sugarcane off-season, which generally runs from December to March.
If these market conditions materialise, US ethanol could become commercially viable for Brazilian buyers again at the beginning of 2027.
