Biomass-based electricity generation in the United States is expected to decline slightly over the next two years, even as renewable energy’s share of the country’s power mix continues to grow, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on July 7.
The EIA expects renewable energy to account for 26% of U.S. electricity generation in 2026, rising to nearly 28% in 2027, up from 24% in 2025, Biomass Magazine reported.
Within the renewable energy mix, biomass is projected to contribute 1.76% of renewable electricity generation in 2026, declining to 1.61% in 2027. Biomass accounted for 1.97% of renewable electricity production in 2025.
Electricity generated from biomass is forecast to total 20 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026 before easing slightly to 19.9 billion kWh in 2027, compared with 20.5 billion kWh in 2025.
The EIA said the U.S. electric power sector had 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of waste biomass generating capacity at the end of 2025. That capacity is expected to stand at 2.47 GW in 2026 and remain unchanged through 2027. Wood biomass generating capacity in the power sector is projected to remain steady at 2.1 GW over the same period.
In the industrial and commercial sectors, wood biomass capacity is expected to remain at 5.1 GW and waste biomass capacity at 1.3 GW during 2026 and 2027.
Waste biomass consumption by the electric power sector is forecast to rise slightly from 0.151 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2025 to 0.154 quad in 2026 and 0.155 quad in 2027. However, wood biomass consumption in the sector is expected to decline from 0.167 quad in 2025 to 0.159 quad in 2026 and 0.156 quad in 2027.
The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.156 quad of waste biomass in both 2026 and 2027, up from 0.154 quad in 2025. Wood biomass consumption in the sector is projected to increase from 1.3 quad in 2025 to 1.34 quad in 2026 before declining to 0.423 quad in 2027.
The commercial sector is expected to maintain waste biomass consumption at 0.067 quad through 2027. Wood biomass consumption is forecast to increase slightly from 0.072 quad in 2025 to 0.073 quad in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027.
Residential wood biomass consumption is projected to fall from 0.372 quad in 2025 to 0.365 quad in both 2026 and 2027.
Across all sectors, total waste biomass consumption is expected to increase from 0.372 quad in 2025 to 0.377 quad in 2026 and 0.378 quad in 2027. Total wood biomass consumption is forecast to rise from 1.912 quad in 2025 to 1.937 quad in 2026 and further to 2.017 quad in 2027.
