According to a recent analysis by research firm Rystad Energy, China is on track to surpass its 2025 green hydrogen production target of 200,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) by the end of 2024, with an expected installation of about 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of hydrogen electrolyzer capacity. The research suggests that China’s national plan aimed for this target by 2025, but the country is likely to achieve it sooner than expected. The 2.5 GW capacity is projected to produce 220,000 tpa of green hydrogen, exceeding the combined production of the rest of the world by six kilotonnes-per-annum (ktpa).
The analysis also predicts that by 2030, China’s four largest green hydrogen projects will contribute up to half of the country’s total production capacity. Mainland China had already installed a cumulative one-gigawatt of electrolyzer capacity by 2023. However, a significant portion of China’s current hydrogen supply comes from grey hydrogen, produced through coal gasification or steam methane reforming. The report emphasizes that for China to meet its dual carbon objectives of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, transitioning to low-carbon hydrogen production methods will be essential.
