The U.S. Energy Information Administration has slightly raised its estimate for fuel ethanol production in 2026, while leaving its projections for exports unchanged, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on February 10. The update was reported by Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The agency now expects U.S. fuel ethanol production to average 1.08 million barrels per day in 2026, up from the earlier estimate of 1.07 million barrels per day made in January. The outlook for 2027 remains unchanged, with production also forecast at an average of 1.08 million barrels per day. In 2025, fuel ethanol output averaged 1.07 million barrels per day.
Data released by the agency show that production in 2026 is expected to begin at about 1.07 million barrels per day in the first quarter, before dipping slightly to 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Output is then projected to pick up to 1.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter and rise to 1.11 million barrels per day in the final quarter of the year.
For 2027, fuel ethanol production is forecast to average 1.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, increase to 1.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, edge up to 1.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and reach 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The agency did not change its outlook for fuel ethanol trade. Net imports are still expected to average -150,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027. Net imports stood at minus 140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Fuel ethanol use is also expected to remain steady. Consumption is forecast to average 930,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the previous outlook. The agency revised its estimate for 2025, saying ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day, slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 940,000 barrels per day.
