The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has kept its projections for renewable diesel and biodiesel production in 2025 and 2026 unchanged, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on October 7. The forecast for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), also remains the same, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The agency expects renewable diesel production to average 200,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 260,000 barrels per day in 2026, consistent with the September report. Last year, production was 210,000 barrels per day.
Net imports of renewable diesel are projected at -30,000 barrels per day in 2025 and -40,000 barrels per day in 2026, a slight increase in the expected outflow compared to last month’s forecast of -30,000 barrels. In 2024, net imports averaged 30,000 barrels per day. Consumption is expected to rise from 170,000 barrels per day this year to 220,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the previous outlook. In 2024, consumption was 240,000 barrels per day.
Biodiesel production is forecast to reach 80,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 90,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with 110,000 barrels per day in 2024. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to remain at zero for both years, unchanged from last month, while consumption is projected at 80,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 90,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from 130,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Production of other biofuels—which includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel such as SAF, biojet, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging fuels—is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from 20,000 barrels per day last year. Net imports are expected to remain at zero, and consumption is projected to mirror production at 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year.
