According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States’ sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity could potentially surge from approximately 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) to nearly 30,000 b/d by 2024, assuming all planned capacity expansions are realized. Developers expect Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project to produce up to about 10,000 b/d of SAF beginning this summer, and they expect Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project to produce about 15,000 b/d of SAF by the end of the year.
SAF serves as an alternative to traditional petroleum jet fuel, derived from agricultural and waste feedstocks and blended with petroleum jet fuel for consumption. Increased investments in SAF stem from incentives like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and state-level programs promoting its use. The White House has set a target to satisfy 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. In 2023, approximately 1.6 million b/d of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the U.S., with projected demand exceeding 2.0 million b/d by 2050 according to the 2023 Annual Energy Outlook.
Data on SAF production is tracked under the “Other Biofuels” category in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, which also includes renewable heating oil, naphtha, propane, gasoline, and emerging biofuels at different stages of development.
Historically, U.S. production of Other Biofuels has been minimal, but it has grown due to by-products from the expanding renewable diesel industry. Production increased from 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d in 2023.
SAF has traditionally constituted a small portion of Other Biofuels due to limited production capacity. At the start of 2024, the U.S. SAF production capacity was around 2,000 b/d, with facilities at World Energy in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables in Great Falls, Montana.
In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, it is forecasted that U.S. production of Other Biofuels will rise by approximately 50% in 2024 and nearly double from 2024 to 2025. Specific forecasts for each fuel within the category are not published.
The main driver behind the anticipated increase in Other Biofuels production, from 19,000 b/d in 2023 to 51,000 b/d in 2025, is the expansion of U.S. SAF production capacity. As renewable diesel production continues to grow, production of its by-products is also expected to increase through 2025, contributing to the overall growth in the Other Biofuels production forecast.
