The U.S. Energy Information Administration has retained its fuel ethanol production forecasts for 2026 and 2027, while raising its projections for exports and consumption in 2027, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 7, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
The agency expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.09 million barrels per day in 2026, increasing to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2027. These projections remain unchanged from its March outlook. For comparison, production averaged 1.08 million barrels per day in 2025.
Quarterly estimates show output at 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, rising to 1.08 million in the third quarter and 1.12 million in the fourth quarter. In 2027, production is projected at 1.09 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1.1 million in the third quarter, and 1.14 million in the fourth quarter.
The EIA also maintained its forecast for net ethanol imports at -150,000 barrels per day in 2026. However, it revised the 2027 estimate to -170,000 barrels per day, compared to -160,000 barrels per day projected earlier. Net imports averaged -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
On the demand side, ethanol consumption is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2026. For 2027, the agency has increased its forecast to 940,000 barrels per day, up from the earlier estimate of 930,000 barrels per day. Ethanol consumption stood at 940,000 barrels per day in 2025.
