The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its 2026 production forecasts for renewable diesel and biodiesel in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on November 12, while lowering its outlook for “other” biofuels, a category that includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The agency continues to expect renewable diesel production to average 200,000 barrels per day this year and 260,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged from its October forecast. Renewable diesel output averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Forecasts for renewable diesel net imports in 2025 also remain unchanged at -30,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the EIA now also expects net imports to remain at -30,000 barrels per day, compared with the earlier projection of -40,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel stood at 30,000 barrels per day last year.
The outlook for renewable diesel consumption is unchanged as well, with the agency expecting an average of 170,000 barrels per day this year and 220,000 barrels per day next year. Consumption was 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Biodiesel production is still projected to average 80,000 barrels per day this year and rise to 90,000 barrels per day next year, the same as last month’s estimate. Biodiesel output averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2024. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to remain at zero in both 2025 and 2026. Net imports were 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Biodiesel consumption forecasts also remain unchanged, with the EIA expecting demand to average 80,000 barrels per day this year and 90,000 barrels per day next year. Consumption was 130,000 barrels per day in 2024.
In contrast, the agency has revised downward its forecast for “other” biofuels, which include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel such as SAF, alternative jet fuel, biojet, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other developing biofuels. Production of these fuels is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, the same as last month’s outlook. However, output for 2026 is now projected to stay at 40,000 barrels per day, down from the earlier forecast of 50,000 barrels per day.
Net imports of “other” biofuels are expected to remain at zero this year and next year, consistent with the previous forecast. Net imports were also zero in 2024.
Consumption of “other” biofuels is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year, unchanged from the October outlook. For 2026, the EIA now expects consumption to stay at 40,000 barrels per day, a reduction from the prior forecast of 50,000 barrels per day. Consumption averaged 20,000 barrels per day last year.
