The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has maintained its forecasts for soybean oil use in biofuel production for 2024-25 and 2025-26, while slightly revising upward the estimate for 2023-24, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on Sept. 12, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The agency projects 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuel production in 2025-26, unchanged from last month’s forecast. The 2024-25 estimate is also steady at 12.25 billion pounds. For 2023-24, soybean oil use in biofuels was raised to 12.995 billion pounds, up from 12.989 billion.
U.S. outlook
The 2025-26 U.S. soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to August. Production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, with harvested area raised by 200,000 acres, though yield slipped slightly to 53.5 bushels per acre.
The soybean crush forecast was increased by 15 million bushels, supported by stronger soybean meal exports. Exports, however, were cut by 20 million bushels amid stronger competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are now projected at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
The season-average soybean price is pegged at $10 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices remain unchanged at $280 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively.
Global outlook
Worldwide soybean supply and demand estimates point to lower beginning stocks, reduced production, lower crush, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks.
Global soybean production is forecast at 425.9 million tons, down 500,000 tons due to lower output in India, the EU, and Serbia, partly offset by increases in Russia and the U.S.
Soybean crush is cut by 1.1 million tons on declines in India, Argentina, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, though partly offset by gains in the U.S., Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Soybean meal trade is revised higher, with increased exports from the U.S. and Ukraine but reduced shipments from India. Imports are raised for the EU but lowered for Egypt, Turkey, and Thailand.
For 2025-26, soybean exports are projected higher for Argentina, Russia, and Canada, offsetting declines from the U.S. and Ukraine. Imports are raised for Turkey, Brazil, Egypt, the EU, and Serbia.
Global ending stocks are trimmed by 900,000 tons to 124 million, reflecting lower stocks in Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada, partly offset by gains in the U.S. and Brazil.
