The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in the 2025–26 season, while slightly lowering its overall soybean production estimate, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released on July 11, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
Soybean oil use for biofuel is now expected to reach 15.5 billion pounds in 2025–26, up significantly from last month’s projection of 13.9 billion pounds. This jump follows an estimated 12.25 billion pounds used in 2024–25 and 13.99 billion pounds in 2023–24.
The increase is driven by expected changes under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027. The proposal is aimed at boosting biobased diesel use while reducing the number of renewable fuel credits (RINs) for imported fuels and those made from foreign feedstocks. This would likely boost demand for domestic feedstocks like soybean oil.
In response to the rising demand for biofuel, the USDA increased its forecast for the U.S. soybean crush by 50 million bushels, bringing it to 2.54 billion bushels. This increase also supports soybean meal production, which is now projected to reach 1.2 billion short tons. Domestic meal consumption is expected to grow by 500,000 short tons to 41.8 million, while exports are forecast to rise by 700,000 short tons to 18.7 million.
Despite the increase in domestic use, overall soybean production is slightly reduced to 4.3 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month’s forecast due to lower harvested acreage. Yield remains unchanged at 52.5 bushels per acre.
U.S. soybean exports for 2025–26 are now expected to fall by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion. The USDA attributes this to stronger domestic demand, along with increased export competition from Argentina, Ukraine, and Brazil—whose large stockpiles will coincide with the peak U.S. export season in September.
Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans are now projected at 310 million bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The average U.S. soybean price for the season is forecast at $10.10 per bushel, down 15 cents. The soybean meal price is expected to drop by $20 to $290 per short ton, while the soybean oil price is up 7 cents to 53 cents per pound.
Globally, the outlook includes higher soybean supply, increased crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. While Brazil’s beginning stocks are up, those for China, Mexico, and Ukraine are revised downward. Ukraine’s production outlook is raised, supported by new government planting data.
Global soybean crush is projected at 367.7 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons, with boosts for the U.S., Ukraine, and Turkey, and reductions for India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Global soybean meal trade is also forecast to rise, with increased imports by Colombia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Vietnam.
Although global exports are slightly lower, with reduced shipments from the U.S. only partially offset by gains from Argentina and Ukraine, global ending stocks are raised by 800,000 tons to 126.1 million.
