India’s renewable energy capacity is anticipated to expand at double the rate of the country’s overall energy capacity growth, according to a report by CRISIL.
The report forecasts that by fiscal 2030, India’s renewable energy (RE) capacity—excluding large hydro projects—will reach between 360 and 370 GW, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% to 17%. In contrast, the country’s overall power capacity is expected to grow by 7.5% to 8% from the installed capacity of 442 GW as of March 2024.
As of March 2024, India’s total installed power generation capacity was 442 GW, with renewable energy contributing nearly 191 GW, including large hydroelectric projects. The report states, “The overall capacity is expected to grow about 7.5% to 8% from the installed capacity of 442 GW as of March 2024. The renewable energy capacity (excluding large hydro) is estimated to reach 360-370 GW by fiscal 2030 at a CAGR of 16.5% to 17%.”
This growth is expected to be driven by supportive government policies, competitive tariffs, and the development of solar parks and green energy corridors. The report suggests that the country will add approximately 175 to 180 GW of solar capacity between fiscal years 2025 and 2030. Solar energy has been a significant factor in this growth, with solar capacity increasing to 82 GW by 2024, up from just 0.9 GW in 2012.
Additionally, the report highlights a significant rise in India’s peak electricity demand, which grew from 164 GW in fiscal 2018 to 243 GW in fiscal 2024, reflecting an average growth rate of 6.8%. Although the generation sector struggled to meet this demand in fiscal 2023, leading to a peak deficit of 4.2%, the situation improved in fiscal 2024, with the deficit reduced to just 1.4%.
Looking ahead, the report predicts that power demand will increase by 5.5% to 6% over the next five years, fueled by investments in infrastructure, railway electrification, expanding metro rail projects, and the rising adoption of electric vehicles. “Despite the high base of the preceding three years, CRISIL MI&A-Consulting expects power demand to grow by 5.5% to 6.0% in the next five years, supported by infrastructure-linked capex,” the report states.
However, advancements in energy efficiency and off-grid renewable generation may temper demand growth. These developments position India as a crucial player in the global renewable energy transition, aligning with its objectives for a sustainable and green energy future.
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