China is on track to become the world leader in green hydrogen production by 2050, while US projects scale back amid policy setbacks, according to a new report from S&P Global Commodity Insights, reports Hydrogen Central.
The report estimates that China will produce 33.4 million metric tons of zero-emission hydrogen from electrolysis by midcentury. By comparison, the European Union is expected to produce 20 million tons, and the US just 4.7 million tons.
Analysts said China’s rapid buildout of electrolyzers has made it the dominant force in the sector, even as Europe faces policy delays and US developers cut back. A year ago, the forecast had put China’s 2050 output at only 11.2 million tons, nearly level with the US at 9.3 million tons.
China’s green hydrogen capacity has now reached 2 gigawatts, representing 70% of global electrolyzer installations. Chinese manufacturers are also securing contracts for projects in Europe, the Middle East, Brazil, Namibia, and the US, the report noted.
In contrast, recent US policy changes have slowed progress. Congress has shortened the timeline for claiming Section 45V hydrogen production tax credits, requiring projects to begin construction before 2028. The administration has also delayed loans and canceled grants for industrial clean hydrogen efforts.
As a result, the report cut its forecast for US electrolyzer capacity by more than 60%, to about 2.5 gigawatts by 2030. It added that stricter Treasury rules could push capacity even lower.
Despite this, the US is expected to remain ahead in “blue hydrogen,” which is produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture. By 2050, US production is projected at 14.1 million tons, compared with 4.3 million tons in China. This outlook is supported by the Section 45Q carbon capture tax credit, which continues to back such projects.
The report also said US hydrogen and ammonia output will benefit from subsidies in Japan and South Korea, which are supporting imports of clean fuels for power generation. It noted that while clean ammonia may not be able to compete with coal on costs by midcentury, both countries have few other options for deep cuts in power sector emissions.
