Brazil’s expanding biodiesel production is expected to reduce its soybean oil exports, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In its April 2025 update, the USDA cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean oil exports for the 2024/25 season by 16%, from 1.55 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes, reports Oil and Fats International.
This decline in exports comes even as Brazil is poised to produce a record soybean harvest of nearly 12 million tonnes and increase its crushing activity compared to the previous year. The primary reason, the USDA says, is a surge in domestic demand for biodiesel, which has outpaced growth in soybean oil production.
The rise in biodiesel output comes despite a recent decision by Brazil’s National Energy Council to maintain the country’s biodiesel blend rate at 14%, rather than increasing it to 15% as initially planned for March 2025.
Globally, the USDA notes that total oilseed crushing is on the rise, driven by higher volumes in Brazil and the European Union. At the same time, demand for vegetable oils continues to grow worldwide. However, total global oilseed production is projected to decline, mainly due to lower output of cottonseed in China and reduced rapeseed and sunflowerseed harvests in the EU.
Vegetable oil production and trade are also trending downward, largely because of slower growth in palm oil output from Southeast Asia. While palm oil production is expected to rise slightly in 2024/25, a rise in Indonesian biodiesel use will likely reduce the volume available for export.
With lower palm oil exports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, global vegetable oil prices climbed in early 2025. But the USDA expects a strong soybean harvest and crush in Argentina to help moderate those rising prices.
In China, rapeseed imports are expected to reach 4 million tonnes—1 million tonnes more than earlier projections. The increase is linked to the country’s ongoing trade tensions with Canada, which have prompted Chinese buyers to import more rapeseed. On the other hand, rapeseed meal imports from Canada to China are expected to drop by 800,000 tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes, following a steep 100% tariff imposed by China.
