Developing countries risk being left behind in the global green transition unless they prioritize economic resilience and green industrialization, according to a new series of discussion papers by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).
Released ahead of the UN’s 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) in Belem, Brazil, the paper series titled “Towards a New Green World” calls on developing nations to focus on value addition and localized production to secure equitable participation in the emerging global green economy.
CSE Director General Sunita Narain emphasized, “Inclusive and affordable development is critical for economic resilience and will help combat climate change.” She added, “Countries need an economic stake in the green transition, which requires domestic manufacturing and job creation. To achieve this, global trade and finance rules must be reset to support localization and value addition. There is an opportunity to establish distributed, locally led production systems as the foundation of green industrialization.”
The papers address three key areas: agriculture and forest commodities, critical minerals, and clean technology manufacturing, offering a Southern perspective on how developing economies can secure a fair share of the green transition.
According to the report, developing nations provide much of the world’s raw resources but capture only a small fraction of the profits. From cocoa and copper to lithium and solar cells, the green transition risks replicating old patterns of extraction and dependence.
CSE climate change programme manager Avantika Goswami said, “We need to reinvent the climate agenda for the Global South. Calling for decarbonization without economic resilience is no longer viable.”
The first paper, on agriculture and forest commodities, highlights that developing nations remain trapped in low-value export cycles. For example, Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce over 50% of the world’s cocoa beans, earn only 6.2% of total export revenue from value-added products like chocolate, while manufacturers and retailers in the Global North capture 80-90% of the profits. The report calls for a shift from raw exports to processing and product diversification.
The second paper, on critical minerals, notes that while the Global South holds most reserves crucial for the energy transition, it captures little of the value generated. Goswami added, “These countries remain exposed to commodity price volatility, balance-of-payments instability, and geopolitical risks.” The paper analyzes strategies in Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, advocating for policies that prioritize equity and justice for the Global South.
The third paper, on clean technology manufacturing, points out that global production is dominated by China, the EU, and the US, with developing regions accounting for less than 5% of production value. It recommends renewed industrial policies, South-South cooperation, and reforms in trade rules to improve participation.
Concluding the series, Narain said, “The future green economy must not replicate the inequalities of the old one. The Global South needs not just a greener world, but a fairer one, where economic resilience is integrated with climate action.”
