The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has maintained its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production at 15.5 billion pounds for the 2025–26 marketing year, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The agency also left unchanged its projection for 2024–25 at 12.25 billion pounds, while final 2023–24 usage stood at 12.989 billion pounds, reports Biodiesel Magazine.
The USDA kept its soybean oil price forecast steady at 53 cents per pound, while the season-average soybean price remains at $10.10 per bushel. Soybean meal prices were revised down $10 to $280 per short ton.
For 2025–26, U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million from the previous outlook, due to a reduced planted area of 80.1 million acres (2.4 million fewer than July’s estimate). A yield increase to 53.6 bushels per acre partly offsets the acreage decline. Beginning stocks are lowered by 20 million bushels, reflecting higher crush and export volumes in the prior year.
With a slow pace of export sales, U.S. soybean exports are reduced by 40 million bushels, while crush remains unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. Ending stocks are now projected at 290 million bushels, 20 million lower than last month.
Globally, 2025–26 soybean production, exports, and ending stocks are all forecast lower, mainly due to reduced output in the U.S. and Serbia. While U.S. exports are trimmed, projections are raised for Argentina and Uruguay. Imports are reduced for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam, with global ending stocks now pegged at 124.9 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month.
