The USDA has kept its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production unchanged in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on August 12. However, the forecast for soybean production has been revised upward.
The 2024-’25 outlook for U.S. soybeans now includes higher projections for production, exports, and ending stocks. Soybean production for the period is forecasted to reach 4.6 billion bushels, an increase of 154 million bushels due to higher acreage and yield. The harvested area is expected to be 86.3 million acres, up by 1 million acres from July’s estimate. The first survey-based yield forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, an increase of 1.2 bushels from the previous month.
Soybean supplies for 2024-’25 are projected to be 4.9 billion bushels, reflecting an 11% increase compared to last year. With soybean exports expected to rise by 25 million bushels due to higher supplies and crush levels remaining unchanged, ending stocks are forecasted at 560 million bushels, an increase of 125 million bushels from last month.
The USDA continues to project that 14 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuel production in 2024-’25, maintaining the forecast from July. For 2023-’24, it is estimated that 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuel production, up from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-’23.
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