The USDA has left its outlook unchanged for the amount of corn to be used in ethanol production during the 2025–26 marketing year, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released on February 10. The department also made no change to its forecast for average corn prices, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
The report said the United States is likely to ship more corn overseas in 2025–26, while stocks at the end of the season are expected to fall. Corn export estimates were raised by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting strong sales and deliveries so far. Data for January showed steady demand from foreign buyers, suggesting that shipments from September through January will probably exceed 1.3 billion bushels.
With supplies unchanged and total use increasing, corn stocks at the end of the season were reduced by 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The average price farmers are expected to receive remains set at $4.10 per bushel.
The USDA also reaffirmed its estimate that 5.6 billion bushels of corn will go into fuel ethanol production in 2025–26. This would be higher than the estimated 5.436 billion bushels used in 2024–25 and slightly above the 5.489 billion bushels recorded in 2023–24.
Outside the United States, corn output for the 2025–26 season is expected to be marginally lower overall. A decline in production in Mexico is largely offset by higher output in the European Union, the report said.
Export expectations were raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Import forecasts were increased for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam, while imports into the European Union were revised downward.
Stocks held outside the United States are expected to rise, mainly because of larger reserves in Ukraine and Iran, even as inventories in Mexico decline. As a result, global corn stocks are now put at 289.0 million tonnes, down 1.9 million tonnes from earlier estimates.
