The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has kept its outlook for fuel ethanol production and exports steady for the next two years, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on April 10, reported Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The EIA expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, slightly below the 1.06 million barrels per day estimated for 2024.
Breaking the forecast down by quarter, production in 2025 is expected to stay at 1.03 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters, then rise to 1.05 million barrels per day in the final quarter. For 2026, the agency projects production to begin at 1.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, fall slightly to 1.04 in the second quarter, dip further to 1.03 in the third quarter, and return to 1.06 million barrels per day by year-end.
The EIA also kept its forecast for net fuel ethanol imports unchanged at -130,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026, the same as in 2024, indicating that exports are expected to continue exceeding imports.
Fuel ethanol blending is expected to remain steady at 930,000 barrels per day in 2025. However, the agency slightly lowered its forecast for 2026 blending to 920,000 barrels per day, down from last month’s estimate of 930,000. Last year, the blending rate was also 930,000 barrels per day.
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