US Fuel Ethanol Exports Surge in 2024 The United States is on track to hit a record high in fuel ethanol exports in 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, driven by countries that require biofuel blending and favourable U.S. ethanol prices. Fuel ethanol, mostly made from corn in the U.S., is a renewable energy source often mixed with gasoline to lower emissions, reports Ethanol Producer Magazine.
Through the first eight months of 2024, U.S. ethanol exports averaged 121,000 barrels per day, marking the highest levels ever for this time frame. Every month in 2024 so far has seen exports exceeding 100,000 barrels per day—a frequency far higher than in recent years when exports reached this mark less than a quarter of the time between 2019 and 2023.
Ethanol exports from the U.S. averaged between 80,000 and 100,000 barrels per day over the past five years. In 2018, however, exports exceeded that range, averaging 112,000 barrels per day as Brazil imported from the United States due to high domestic demand. Since then, exports to Brazil have dropped sharply, with casualties of new tariffs on imports imposed by Brazil and an expansion of Brazil’s ethanol production.
Demand from Canada, Colombia, India, and the United Kingdom accounted for over 60 per cent of the growth in U.S. ethanol exports this year. In 30 countries, exports are on pace to exceed 2023 levels by year-end, with shipments to 21 of those countries already exceeding full-year totals from last year.
The greatest growth has come from India, which has aggressive blending targets under the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) program. India bars imported ethanol from being blended into petrol but imports U.S. ethanol for industrial consumption, thus allowing more of its own to meet blending targets. This year, India has relied more on imports due to lower-than-usual production of sugarcane and rice, which are used in domestic ethanol.
The United Kingdom has become the second-largest market for U.S. ethanol, as the country’s fuel demand has increased since it adopted an E10 fuel standard in 2021, alongside new renewable fuel goals. Canada remains the top destination for U.S. ethanol exports, while Colombia has also raised imports following a recent increase in blending requirements and a drop in its ethanol production. Other countries, including Brazil, the Philippines, and Singapore, have also stepped up their imports.
The U.S. remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of fuel ethanol, benefiting this year from lower prices, which have fallen around 25% since last year. Adjusted for inflation, U.S. ethanol prices are currently about the same as they were in 2018 and 2019. This price drop is due to a high supply of ethanol within the U.S., as production has been strong while domestic demand has lagged.
U.S. ethanol production hit a record high in July, and 2024 most likely be the peak year for the highest output since 2018. The reason is that increased capacity and lower cost of production are giving room for producers to produce at such levels. Corn, the crop mostly used for U.S. ethanol, trades at its lowest price since 2020 due to its large harvest and excellent availability. Ethanol’s other major feedstock, natural gas, is also inexpensive, thanks to record production and high levels of reserves.
Even as production has set records, use of ethanol in the U.S. remains below pre-pandemic levels. Almost all the ethanol used in the U.S. is blended into gasoline, and gasoline demand has remained lower than before the pandemic due to lasting shifts in how fuel is used.
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