In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Nov. 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its fuel ethanol production forecasts for 2024 and 2025. The 2024 forecast for fuel ethanol blending was also adjusted upward, reported Ethanol Producer magazine.
The EIA now anticipates that U.S. ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, an increase from last month’s estimate of 1.04 million barrels per day. In 2023, fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day.
For a quarterly breakdown, fuel ethanol production is projected to average 1.08 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024. In 2025, the production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s forecast for net imports of fuel ethanol remains unchanged from October, at an average of -120,000 barrels per day for 2024. The EIA now expects this rate to continue through 2025, revising last month’s estimate of -110,000 barrels per day. In 2023, net imports of fuel ethanol averaged -90,000 barrels per day.
Fuel ethanol blending for 2024 is projected to average 930,000 barrels per day, an increase from the October forecast of 920,000 barrels per day. The EIA has retained its forecast for 2025, expecting blending to average 930,000 barrels per day, the same rate as in 2023.
