Airlines could face such a significant increase in fuel costs to fund the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that it might drive some out of business, according to Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Sustainability at IATA, reported Travel Weekly.
Speaking at the Airlines 24 conference in London, Owens Thomsen warned that without “strong policy” to support rapid investment in SAF, the airline industry could be at risk. She explained, “SAF currently costs about three times more than jet fuel. In 2025, we’re looking at an additional $1 billion in costs, and by 2050, that could rise to $750 billion. This is simply not sustainable.”
IATA estimates that global airline profits will reach $30.5 billion this year. However, Owens Thomsen pointed out that airline fares have not kept up with consumer price inflation and have struggled even more to match rising jet fuel costs. “We need strong policy to encourage SAF investment, or we could see airlines disappear,” she said.
Last year, only 500,000 tonnes of SAF were produced worldwide, with that figure expected to rise to 1 million tonnes this year—less than 1% of the global demand for jet fuel. Owens Thomsen emphasized that the SAF market is still in its early stages and needs substantial growth, calling for a production increase by a factor of 1,000.
She also suggested that by 2030, 70 refineries would be needed to produce SAF for aviation, with that number rising to 650 by 2040, and between 4,000 and 8,000 by 2050. IATA estimates the capital investment needed for SAF production to be similar to that for global wind and solar energy—between $2 trillion and $3 trillion—excluding the cost of feedstocks.
Owens Thomsen acknowledged the UK government’s proposed revenue certainty mechanism for SAF producers, but stressed the need for a global SAF market, stating, “The atmosphere doesn’t care where emissions are reduced.” She highlighted the importance of creating a global SAF registry, which IATA hopes to advance with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) next year.
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