Ethanol production and demand in China are projected to increase by 17% this year, as per report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network. However, domestic ethanol production capacity in China is expected to remain stable, reported Ethanol Producer Magazine.
China’s fuel ethanol production is anticipated to reach 4.9 billion liters (1.29 billion gallons) in 2024, rising from 4.2 billion liters last year and 3.804 billion liters in 2022. A small portion of this production consists of fossil-based synthetic fuel, estimated at 60 million liters for both 2023 and 2024, compared to 40 million liters in 2022.
As per the media report, the report highlights that fuel ethanol prices in China are set at 91.1% of the retail gasoline price, determined by the National Development and Reform Commission based on a basket of global benchmark crude prices. As ethanol prices are linked to gasoline prices, the recent decline in corn prices has led to increased ethanol production, with corn prices reaching a three-year low in early 2024.
Total ethanol production in China is expected to reach 14 billion liters this year, up from 12.911 billion liters in 2023 and 11.85 billion liters in 2022.
Total ethanol consumption is projected to be 13.989 billion liters in 2024, compared to 12.877 billion liters in 2023 and 11.84 billion liters in 2022. Fuel ethanol consumption is estimated at 4.905 billion liters this year, increasing from 4.199 billion liters last year and 8.31 billion liters in 2022.
China is expected to import 5 million liters of ethanol this year, all of which will be fuel ethanol, as there were no reported imports in 2022 or 2023. Ethanol exports are estimated at 16 million liters this year, with no fuel ethanol exports. Total ethanol exports were 34 million liters in 2023 and 10 million liters in 2022, including fuel ethanol exports of 1 million liters and 3 million liters, respectively.
Currently, China has 21 first-generation ethanol plants, down from 22 in the previous three years. The total capacity, estimated at 7.72 billion liters per year, has not changed since 2021. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 63% this year, up from 54% last year and 49% in 2022.
The report also notes that China now has five cellulosic ethanol plants, an increase from the one facility that operated from 2016 to 2023. The cellulosic capacity remains at 65 million liters per year, unchanged since 2016, with current utilization at 0%, consistent since 2019.
Corn is the main feedstock for ethanol production in China, with producers also processing rice, cassava, and some wheat.
The ethanol blend rate in gasoline is expected to increase to 2.3% this year, up from 2.1% in 2023 and 2% in 2022.
