The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has upheld its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on February 11. The agency also kept its projections steady for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), reports Biomass Magazine.
According to the EIA, renewable diesel production is expected to remain at 230,000 barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. In comparison, production stood at 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The forecast for net imports of renewable diesel remains at 20,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026, consistent with previous projections. Last year, net imports were slightly higher at 30,000 barrels per day.
Renewable diesel consumption is projected to reach 250,000 barrels per day in 2025 and rise to 270,000 barrels per day in 2026, with no changes from last month’s outlook. Consumption was recorded at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
For other biofuels—including renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (such as SAF), alternative jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging fuels—production is expected to reach 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, maintaining previous estimates. Production for these fuels was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA also maintained its forecast that net imports of these biofuels will remain at zero for both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024.
Consumption of other biofuels is projected to be 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, rising to 50,000 barrels per day in 2026. Last year, consumption stood at 20,000 barrels per day.
