Brazil’s soybean and biodiesel value chain is poised for significant growth this year, with its GDP expected to rise by nearly 11%, driven by a record soybean harvest and increased processing activity, according to projections from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE), reported Valore International.
The chain’s GDP-Income—an indicator that captures total income generated across the sector—is forecast to climb by 18.2% in 2025, reaching R$820.9 billion. This would mark the first meaningful increase after three years of decline.
Based on first-quarter 2025 data, if the 11% growth is confirmed, the soybean and biodiesel value chain would account for 21.7% of the country’s total agribusiness GDP and 6.4% of Brazil’s overall GDP.
The jump in GDP is largely attributed to a historic soybean harvest—estimated by ABIOVE at nearly 170 million tonnes—as well as a 3.6% rise in soybean processing compared to 2024, reaching 57.8 million tonnes.
A key driver behind the growth in soybean crushing is rising demand for biodiesel. Starting in August, the blend of biodiesel in fossil diesel will increase from 14% to 15%, with expectations of further gradual increases in the future.
“This record level of crushing is a major milestone for the industry,” said Daniel Furlan Amaral, ABIOVE’s director of regulatory affairs, in an interview with Valor Econômico. “It not only contributes directly to the soybean sector’s GDP but also feeds biodiesel production, which supports continued expansion across the value chain, including increased output of soybean meal for the animal feed industry.”
While the demand for edible oil remains flat, the biodiesel segment is increasingly absorbing soybean oil production. “Despite the stagnation in food-related vegetable oil consumption, biodiesel continues to take up a significant share of the raw material,” Amaral added.
Projections for 2025 remain optimistic across all parts of the value chain. Soybean GDP is expected to grow by 24.1%, while agribusiness services are forecast to rise by 8.2%. Biodiesel itself is projected to see a 5.76% increase.
The positive momentum is also being reflected in employment. CEPEA and ABIOVE estimate that 2.44 million people were employed in the soybean and biodiesel sectors in the first quarter of this year, a 7.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
“We see this employment growth as a direct result of the sector’s expansion,” said Nicole Rennó, a CEPEA researcher. “The strong soybean harvest is driving agribusiness growth and creating jobs not only in agricultural production but across the broader network of services that support the industry.”
