Adani Power Limited (APL) has solidified its position as the largest private coal-based independent power producer (IPP) in India, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. The company operates a total installed capacity of 18,150 MW across 12 plants in eight states.
The report highlights APL’s success in acquiring and reviving 4,370 MW of stressed assets, with integration of an additional 2,900 MW currently in progress. APL has maintained plant availability consistently above 90 per cent, supported by its digital operations and in-house capabilities in coal sourcing and logistics.
With an 8 per cent share in India’s coal-based capacity and power generation—second only to state-run NTPC—APL is rapidly expanding its footprint. Morgan Stanley projects that the company’s market share could rise to 15 per cent by FY32, backed by a robust capacity pipeline of 41.9 GW, more than double its current portfolio.
“We forecast its market share to reach 15 per cent by FY32, with a 41.9 GW portfolio, which is 2.5 times that of FY25. APL has also seen favourable resolution of most regulatory issues and maintains a strong balance sheet,” the report noted.
APL’s track record in turning around distressed assets has been notable. The 1,370 MW Raipur plant, acquired in 2019, saw EBITDA jump from Rs 2.1 billion to Rs 24 billion by FY25. Similarly, the 1,200 MW Mahan plant, purchased in 2022, achieved a fourfold rise in EBITDA to Rs 19 billion within three years, with the associated debt fully repaid. The Raigarh plant, previously non-operational, now generates an annual EBITDA of Rs 12.7 billion.
The company’s recent acquisitions in FY25—including Mutiara (1,200 MW), Korba (600 MW), Butibori (600 MW), and Dahanu (500 MW)—are expected to significantly boost earnings in FY26 and FY27.
Morgan Stanley also highlighted the company’s improving financial health. APL’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio has dropped from 9.7x in FY19 to 1.8x in FY25, driven by the recovery of regulatory dues and favourable outcomes in legacy issues.
APL has demonstrated swift execution capabilities, having completed India’s largest supercritical power plant at Mundra (4,620 MW) in record time. It also commissioned the cross-border Godda plant during the pandemic within 3.5 years.
Most regulatory matters have now been resolved in APL’s favour. The Supreme Court recently dismissed allegations stemming from a short-seller’s report, and on Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) gave a clean chit to the Adani Group.
Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Adani Power with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a price target of Rs 818, indicating a potential 30 per cent upside. The brokerage forecasts that APL’s capacity and EBITDA could expand 2.5x and 3x respectively by FY33.
