The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has held firm on its forecasts for renewable diesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on May 6, reports Biomass Magazine.
According to the agency, renewable diesel production is projected to grow from an average of 210,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 220,000 barrels per day in 2024, and 250,000 barrels per day in 2025. These figures are unchanged from last month’s forecast. The EIA also predicts that net imports of renewable diesel will remain at zero in 2025 and 2026, a revision from the previous outlook of -10,000 barrels per day for both years.
On the consumption side, renewable diesel use is forecast to be 210,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, consistent with earlier estimates. Consumption in 2024 is expected to average 240,000 barrels per day.
The production forecast for “other biofuels” — a category that includes SAF, renewable jet fuel, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other advanced fuels — also remains steady. The EIA expects 50,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2025. Consumption is expected to match production, with both forecast to rise from 20,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 50,000 in 2025 and 60,000 in 2026.
The outlook reflects no net imports of “other biofuels” through 2026, maintaining a self-sufficient trend for this fuel category.
