The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its expectations for biodiesel production and renewable diesel consumption in 2025. The changes were announced in the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, released on December 10.
The report now expects biodiesel production to shoot up to 110,000 barrels per day in 2025 from the earlier forecast of 100,000 barrels per day. This is equivalent to the volumes produced in 2023 and 2024 with both averaging 110,000 barrels per day.
Imports of biodiesel are going to change, too. In 2023, the U.S. imported an average of 20,000 barrels per day. This is going to decrease to 10,000 barrels per day in 2024 and become zero in 2025.
On the contrary, the consumption of biodiesel will decline. Following the average figure of 130,000 barrels a day in 2023, it is expected that consumption will decline to 120,000 barrels a day in 2024, and subsequently to just 10,000 barrels a day in 2025.
The EIA has kept its forecast for renewable diesel production unchanged. It expects production to increase from 170,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 210,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 230,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Renewable diesel imports are also expected to decline. After averaging 20,000 barrels per day in 2023, imports are forecast to rise to 40,000 barrels per day in 2024 before dropping to 20,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The demand for renewable diesel is on the rise. While consumption is expected to remain at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024, the EIA has raised its 2025 forecast from 240,000 barrels per day to 250,000 barrels per day. This is a notable increase from 2023 when consumption averaged 190,000 barrels per day.
The report also includes projections for “other biofuels,” a category that encompasses renewable heating oil, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable gasoline, and other similar products. Production of these fuels is expected to double from 20,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 40,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Unlike biodiesel and renewable diesel, the EIA doesn’t anticipate the U.S. importing any “other biofuels” in 2024 or 2025. Meanwhile, consumption of these fuels will also increase, from 20,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, keeping in line with production.
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