The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its outlook for fuel ethanol production and consumption in 2026, reflecting stronger expectations for output and blending demand.
The agency now expects ethanol production to average 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than last month’s estimate of 1.09 million barrels per day. Production is projected to remain at the same level in 2027. By comparison, output averaged 1.08 million barrels per day in 2025, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported.
Quarterly estimates show production averaging 1.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, rising to 1.1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.12 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2027, output is expected to average 1.09 million barrels per day in the first two quarters, increase to 1.1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and reach 1.13 million barrels per day in the final quarter.
The outlook for ethanol trade remains unchanged, with net imports projected at -150,000 barrels per day in 2026 and -170,000 barrels per day in 2027. Net imports stood at -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA has also raised its forecast for ethanol consumption in 2026 to 940,000 barrels per day, up from the previous estimate of 930,000 barrels per day. Consumption is expected to remain steady at 940,000 barrels per day in 2027, matching the level recorded in 2025.
