The global market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could grow to around $50 billion over the next 10 years, according to a new study by UK-based market research firm ID TechEx. The report also estimates that combined production capacity for renewable diesel and SAF could rise to more than 67 million tonnes a year by 2036, as both fuels rely on similar processing methods, reports AIN.
The study said last year marked an important turning point for SAF, with the introduction of mandatory usage rules in both the UK and the European Union. These measures have created guaranteed demand for the fuel. Report author Eve Pope said demand is expected to keep increasing as more rules aimed at cutting emissions are introduced.
While there are close to a dozen approved ways to produce SAF, most current supply comes from a process that uses used cooking oil, animal fats and grease as raw materials. However, the availability of these inputs is limited. Pope said demand for SAF is likely to exceed the supply of these materials by around 2030.
To address this gap, newer production methods such as alcohol-based conversion and synthetic SAF are expected to play a larger role. Some facilities using these approaches have already started operations. One such plant, LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines facility in Georgia, began production last year and has the capacity to make about 9 million gallons of SAF annually. It is the first facility of its kind to produce SAF on a commercial scale using this method.
The report noted that despite growing interest, many of the newer production routes remain costly. Pope said reducing these costs will depend on further technology improvements and supportive government policies to help the sector scale up.
