Brazil is poised for a major shift toward sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) beginning in 2027, with consumption projected to reach 0.03 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2035, according to the Energy Research Company (EPE), reports bnamericas.
In its publication “Energy Demand of the Transport Sector,” part of the 2035 Ten-Year Energy Plan (PDE), the state-owned entity reports that SAF consumption will account for roughly 12% of domestic energy demand linked to passenger air transport by 2035.
The expected expansion is attributed to emission reduction targets under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) and ProBioQAV, established by the federal Fuel of the Future program. EPE notes that 2027 marks the start of mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts for domestic operations by Brazilian airlines.
Petrobras and Acelen are among the companies advancing research and planning SAF production in the country. In contrast, Brasil Biofuels (BBF) has paused its plans as the company undergoes court-supervised reorganization following a filing earlier this year.
The PDE anticipates diesel oil B will remain the dominant fuel in the transport sector, with demand projected to reach 57.5 billion liters in 2035, growing 1.9% annually.
While electrification is gaining traction in specific areas such as last-mile freight, its share of total sector consumption is expected to remain limited through the end of the decade. For light vehicles, gasoline C use is projected to decline as hydrous ethanol gains ground, aided by improved vehicle efficiency and public transport expansion. Between 2023 and 2035, hydrous ethanol consumption is set to grow 5.3% annually, offsetting part of the demand for gasoline.
In maritime transport, emerging fuels—including biodiesel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), ammonia, hydrogen, and electricity—are projected to gain adoption, particularly after 2030.
Overall energy demand in the transportation sector is forecast to reach 115 Mtoe in 2035, driven primarily by road transport, which will account for 93% of total consumption. This rise is supported by expected GDP growth averaging 2.8% annually and increased population mobility.
Freight transport will continue to rely heavily on trucks, with the segment projected to grow 2.8% per year, fueled by agribusiness, industry, and construction.
Rail transport is set for notable expansion, with the network expected to increase by around 20% to reach 36.9 thousand kilometers by 2035, boosting sector activity by 5.5% annually.
Waterway freight is also expected to advance, growing 3.2% annually, backed by investments in vessels, shipyards, and ports, and strengthened by cabotage in oil logistics.
On the passenger side, individual vehicle use is projected to grow 2.4% per year, with registrations estimated to reach 3.8 million units by 2035.
The study indicates a gradual but steady rise in light-vehicle electrification, especially in major cities. By 2035, electrified vehicles are expected to represent about 6% of the national fleet, while flex-fuel vehicles will remain dominant at approximately 87%.
Public transportation is also set to expand, supported by investments under the Novo PAC program. Urban bus services are projected to grow 3.7% annually through 2035, while metro-rail systems are expected to increase by 3.6% per year, boosted by the anticipated launch of the Intermunicipal Train (TIM) and parts of the Intercities Train (TIC) in São Paulo.
